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  1. #1

    The Age Old Battle Cry for Net Neutrality

    The traffic growth is pretty steady, but the bandwidth is not. It’s highly volatile, sure, but there is no question that it’s trending downward.
    Perhaps, but remember it’s the rate of growth that is trending downward. And that rate of growth curve sure seems like it can be smoothed to look a lot like the curve that is the rate of "internet traffic growth."
    I don’t want to be that guy, especially since my impression is that net neutrality must be defended. But I’m not sure this particular statistical model supports net neutrality, given that both here are on a similar downward trend since 1998…way before significant changes in service models by consumer ISP’s.

  2. #2
    You got me… kinda.
    So, this post was a LOT longer when I just wrote everything out. I had a whole statistical chart about how paying for YouTube Red and paying a mobile network provider. There were some studies on the way servers are already segregated, and the types of sites that could be in pay-zone groups together. I took a bunch of that out because it was kind of tangential, not to mention boring. There are a few remnants of that (see the two ads per penny on YouTube statement).
    That first point was kind of in the same realm, but it was close enough that I’d thought I’d leave it in. I did say that it was possibly because of a lack of technological innovation, which is very possibly true, but it still does line up remarkably well with the slowing rates of internet joining. But here’s the kicker: we’re almost certainly on the verge of "the next billion" joining the web, as the saying goes. And that will drastically increase the rates of internet joining, and I suspect we won’t see nearly as stark an increase of bandwidth in response.
    Of course, that’s just speculation. There’s nothing really even close to a comparable event to this, except maybe the Industrial Revolution, and since they weren’t really doing studies of mechanical adoption in impoverished and developing nations at that time, I have no comparison or studies to draw from. But I threw it in anyway, mostly to make the point that if NN is revoked, the total bandwidth most definitely will stagnate, even as more people join the WWW.
    I actually appreciate the fact that you’re "being that guy" in an intelligent way, truly <3 But I’m also glad you agree that even if that point is wrong, that NN is still unbelievably vital to a strong, true Net. So thank you for reading, and go hug a tree… website

  3. #3
    Of course! No trouble at all.
    I tend to wonder if the internet, and demand for it (not demand for bandwidth, but for the services the internet provides) has peaked as a result of the lack of innovation in those services when compared to the early days when everything was new?
    It reminds me a bit of smartphones…nothing significant has changed lately in what a smartphone can provide for a consumer…perhaps that’s all there will be for a while?
    Anyway, regarding "the next billion"…their demand will likely be defined by the availability of bandwidth, which will almost certainly be capped by cost in some way in the developing world…so any growth we see in bandwidth usage worldwide, it follows, will probably continue to be slow.

  4. #4
    I love this post.
    I also think the problem is simple.
    If Broadband providers can make more money creating Payzones, then why would they not do this?
    They are stuck in the growth cycle created by Wall Street. So they would create revenue, the same way game companies are using microtransations.
    Another good comparison is the cell phone carriers. You basically have 4, but they are constantly trying to consolidate in order to make board members more money.
    T-Mobile was not allowed to merge with At&t. They received some compensation from At&t for the failed merger attempt.
    Cell phone makers, such as Apple, Samsung, HTC, and others started integrating wireless chips that supported all cell phone networks.
    Carriers were not allowed to lock your phone to a single network(forever). If you own you can take it where ever you want.
    Today we can jump carriers and not buy a new phone. This allows us to pick based on price and quality of service. Verizon has been slow to adapt, so T-Mobile and Sprint are taking customers.
    Now remove Net Neutrality.
    Cable modems, DSL, Fiber, Line-of-site wireless, Powerline internet, satalite and any other broadband delivery system can now and will charge websites and cloud services to use there networks. So you pay and they pay, but you will have not choice. If Netflix does not pay then you can’t get a fast connection, or can you???.
    And will you?
    When companies don’t pay, we will, just like cable.

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