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  1. #1

    What Will Nintendo Do If The NX Flops?

    Patcher thought they’d "only" lose about half a billion of their 8ish billion dollar reserve if it flops, so they’ll definitely live through whatever, but after two flops in a row I think they’ll really need to rethink their strategy. They had a few timid mobile entries, but they could perhaps listen to what a lot of people are saying and make full on mobile games, not weird social experiments.

  2. #2
    1. You shouldn’t listen to Micheal Patcher…
    2. They announced Animal Crossing and Fire Emblem for mobile platforms.
    I don’t understand pieces like this, it’s like they want Nintendo to fail or something. I get it, The Verge is a tech publication and Nintendo doesn’t exactly pioneer in cutting edge tech, but still.
    No one knows anything about the system and the rumors are only going to upset people when it doesn’t turn out how people envisioned it because of the hype.

  3. #3
    I see a lot of hate for Patcher, but with his business and finance analysis background, I don’t think he’s generally been miles off. I think he got a particularly bad rap during the Wii U era, but the thing is, he was smart enough to never say they were doomed as a company, anyone who knows about their warchest would be lightyears ahead of themselves to say that. Instead, he said the Wii U would have their quarterly finances doing poorly for some years, and he was right there. Even if they squeezed out a profit, it was a very small one compared to years before.

    Why, specifically, should I not listen to him?

  4. #4
    It’s Pachter, not Patcher.
    You shouldn’t really listen to any analysts at all. It’s nothing against Pachter specifically. Gamers for some reason are obsessed with what various analysts have to say, and Pachter’s one that they’ve decided is important. For one thing, the info analysts provide is only really intended for investors, and even most investors don’t pay much attention to analysts. They’re entertainment. Investors like to look at each other and say "Did you hear what this guy just said?" and then they laugh and laugh.
    Analysts in general have a predictive record that’s a little lower than 50%. That means you could throw a dart blindfolded and have a better chance of predicting success or failure. There are a lot of reasons for this, but the biggest are basically the same as the laws of nature… you can predict the orbits of planets (you know that the stock market as a whole will probably go up over a long period of time), but you can’t predict the motion of quantum particles (the movements of specific stocks day to day). In between those two extremes, there’s a middle ground that you’re going to get right about 50% of the time (predicting overall success or failure of particular products over a few years), and that’s what analysts like Pachter do. But that’s just not any better than random chance. You may as well just guess.

  5. #5
    Nintendo won’t fail but the Wii u is a failure and if the NX fails, the OP is wondering will Nintendo keep making consoles. As they are losing a lot of good will with gamers on the console side of things. Nintendo itself will be fine regardless.

  6. #6
    I think 3 and 4.
    The problem I see is kids these days are growing up fast, they’re skipping right over Mario, and going straight to Call of Duty type games.

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